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A YouGov survey for logistics provider Paxon found that 34% of UK adults who shop online expect to keep the same number of subscriptions when new cancellation rules take effect in January 2027. Some respondents expect to cut back, and 15% are unsure, so the results point to mixed expectations rather than a clear forecast of widespread cancellations.
Thirty-four percent of UK adults who shop online expect to keep using the same number of subscriptions when new cancellation rules take effect in January 2027, according to YouGov research commissioned by fulfilment and logistics provider Paxon. The results suggest consumers do not uniformly expect to abandon subscriptions, though a portion anticipate cutting back and the survey does not establish how people will behave once the rules are in force.
The online survey included more than 2,000 UK adults aged 18 and over. Among respondents who shop online, 34% said they expected no change in the number of subscriptions they use. Another 6% expected to sign up for more, while 3% said they might use subscriptions for the first time.
On the other side, 14% expected to use fewer subscriptions and 3% said they might cancel all of them. A further 15% were unsure how the new rules would affect their preferences. These figures describe respondents’ stated expectations, not measured cancellations or future subscription orders.
The survey also identified a difference by age: 12% of adults aged 18 to 24 expected to take out more subscriptions, compared with 6% of UK adults overall. Paxon said this may be relevant to retailers’ planning, but the supplied findings do not provide a breakdown of subscription types or spending by age group.
Forecasting Beyond Subscriber Counts
The results matter to retailers that use recurring orders to plan stock, warehouse capacity and deliveries. The findings offer no basis for assuming that cancellations will rise across the whole customer base, but they also show a measurable group expecting to reduce or end subscriptions. The 15% who are unsure add another source of uncertainty for businesses preparing for the rule change.
Paxon’s advice is to base forecasts on actual purchasing behaviour, rather than treating an active subscription as a guaranteed future sale. Subscribers may skip a delivery, change its frequency or cancel. Those actions can affect recurring revenue and fulfilment demand even if a customer remains on a subscription list for some time.
The company also pointed to changes in where consumers shop. In a separate question, online shoppers who expected to buy less through retailer and brand websites over the next 12 months were asked where they were most likely to shop instead for items previously bought directly. Thirty percent selected online marketplaces, 14% selected mobile shopping apps and 13% selected search engine shopping features. Separately, 18% of all UK adults said AI shopping assistants and social commerce platforms would reduce the number of retailer and brand websites they visit to make a purchase. These findings indicate that subscription demand is only one part of retailers’ forecasting challenge.
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What the Survey Measures
The report concerns consumer expectations ahead of new cancellation rules scheduled for January 2027. The supplied source does not detail the rules’ provisions, so it is not possible from this research alone to describe how cancellation procedures will change or which subscription arrangements will be affected.
The Paxon findings come from an online YouGov survey of more than 2,000 UK adults aged 18 and over. The reported subscription percentages refer to UK adults who shop online, while the separate figure on AI shopping assistants and social commerce refers to all UK adults. The source does not give fieldwork dates, question wording beyond its summaries, or a margin of error.
That distinction matters: a stated intention is not the same as a recorded purchase or cancellation. The research offers a snapshot of what respondents say they expect, rather than evidence that the new rules have already changed subscription behaviour.
“A third of consumers expect to continue using the same number of subscriptions, so retailers should not assume demand will fall across the board.”
— Andrew Scanlon, Paxon’s head of sales and marketing
Intentions Are Not Cancellations
The survey does not show what consumers will actually do after the rules take effect. It reports expectations, including uncertainty among 15% of respondents, and does not track subsequent sign-ups, cancellations, skipped deliveries or changes in order frequency.
The supplied report also does not specify the survey fieldwork dates, the precise wording of the cancellation rules, or the method used to recruit respondents. It provides no detailed results by subscription category, household income or region. The findings therefore cannot show which businesses or products may face the greatest change in demand.
The figures on alternative shopping channels are also based on respondents’ stated likelihood or expectations. They do not establish that purchases have already shifted to marketplaces, apps, search features, AI tools or social platforms.
Retailers Track Orders Through 2027
The next significant milestone is the scheduled introduction of the cancellation rules in January 2027. The source does not give a more specific implementation date or describe additional regulatory steps.
In the meantime, Paxon recommends that retailers combine subscription activity, order history, sales trends and planned marketing campaigns when estimating demand. Tracking completed orders and customer changes over time should give businesses a clearer view than subscriber totals alone, particularly as customers may buy through multiple channels.
Whether consumers’ stated expectations translate into a material rise in cancellations will become clearer only as the rules approach and businesses gather behaviour data. The survey provides an early indication of varied expectations, not a settled forecast of the market’s response.
Key Questions
What did the Paxon survey find about subscription use?
Thirty-four percent of UK adults who shop online expected to use the same number of subscriptions. Fourteen percent expected to use fewer, 3% said they might cancel all, and 15% were unsure.
When are the new cancellation rules scheduled to take effect?
The source says the rules are due to take effect in January 2027. It does not provide further details about the rules or a specific implementation date.
Does the research show that subscriptions will be cancelled?
No. It records respondents’ expectations, not actual cancellations or orders after the rules take effect. Future behaviour remains uncertain.
Which age group was more likely to expect more subscriptions?
Adults aged 18 to 24 were twice as likely as UK adults overall to say they expected to sign up for more subscriptions: 12%, compared with 6%.
What does Paxon recommend retailers track?
Paxon’s Andrew Scanlon said retailers should consider actual purchasing behaviour, including subscription activity, order history, sales trends and planned marketing, rather than relying heavily on subscriber counts alone.
Source: cosmeticsbusiness.com
